COMPUTED RESULT. Observed elapsed time, simulated service assumptions and business outcomes are distinct. This report does not assess individual employees or calculate monetary savings.
BPI Challenge2019 · public Purchase-to-Pay log · Boudewijn van Dongen · 4TU.ResearchData · version1 · CC BY4.0. Original input:728,558,522bytes, checked against official MD5.
Preregistered core projection excludes SRM administrative activities only from the twin. Eligible core cases begin Create Purchase Order Item, end Clear Invoice, remain entirely in one2018quarter, and exclude Consignment/unknown categories. This is an observed endpoint proxy, not proof of closure. Q1+Q2calibration, Q3validation,Q4test; documents crossing sets excluded. SHA-selected heldoutsamples are capped3000cases per set. Pooled trace bootstrap, category trace bootstrap and category semi-Markov elapsed-time models use identical observed arrival schedules and fixed92day windows.20seeded replicas per model/set. Seven unweighted validation errors select one model before independent testing. All model test metrics are reported.90percent marginal duration intervals derive only from calibration; actual heldoutcoverage is measured.95percent Student-t intervals quantify independent MC mean uncertainty conditional on the model;499whole-document bootstrap repetitions quantify observed sample uncertainty separately. Experimental acceptance tolerances and minimum100cases are preregistered engineering bounds, not official standards. Quarter/end-point selection and retrospective arrival conditioning preclude prospective prediction claims.
Acquisition: 2026-11-06T11:24:17.701083+00:00 · Execution: 2026-11-06T12:20:23.643683+00:00.
Complete computed result
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],
"status": "NOT VALIDATED"
},
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],
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},
{
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}
]
}
},
"origin_us": 1538352000000000,
"horizon_day": 92.0
}
},
"nominal_interval_coverage": 0.9,
"split_method": "Q1+Q2calibration,Q3validation,Q4test; entire core case inside quarter; cross-split purchase documents excluded; max3000SHA-selected heldoutcases",
"time_model": "Observed elapsed transitions; no claim to identified service or waiting durations",
"arrival_conditioning": "Heldout sampled-cohort arrival times are conditioned on; fixedquarter completions are simulated. This is retrospective distributional validation, not a prospective demand forecast.",
"limits": [
"Observed invoice endpoints and quarter containment create selection bias; results do not validate all251734cases or future periods.",
"Only2calibration and1test 2-way matching cases: insufficient evidence, regardless of numerical fit.",
"A semi-Markov model may lose path dependence and perform worse than whole-trace bootstrap; all results are reported.",
"Simulation CIs condition on fitted model and fixed data; separate purchase-document bootstrap assumes cluster exchangeability.",
"A90percent marginal duration interval is evaluated for coverage; a successful mean fit does not imply individual case prediction calibration.",
"Administrative SRM events excluded only from the model projection; complete observed reconstruction remains unchanged."
],
"results_sha256": "5947b4bc8b35778d6c4735b21e43849dcb9ea17767bf8ca53dc7114a4cb5e4cd"
}