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This is retrospective distributional validation, not a prospective demand forecast.","limits":["Observed invoice endpoints and quarter containment create selection bias; results do not validate all251734cases or future periods.","Only2calibration and1test 2-way matching cases: insufficient evidence, regardless of numerical fit.","A semi-Markov model may lose path dependence and perform worse than whole-trace bootstrap; all results are reported.","Simulation CIs condition on fitted model and fixed data; separate purchase-document bootstrap assumes cluster exchangeability.","A90percent marginal duration interval is evaluated for coverage; a successful mean fit does not imply individual case prediction calibration.","Administrative SRM events excluded only from the model projection; complete observed reconstruction remains unchanged."],"results_sha256":"5947b4bc8b35778d6c4735b21e43849dcb9ea17767bf8ca53dc7114a4cb5e4cd"}