{
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  "title": "Treasury Yield Curve & Financial Stress \u2014 A Historical Analysis of Market Regimes",
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      "spearman": -0.020444197777,
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      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
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      "lag_weeks": 4,
      "kind": "first_difference",
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        0.000276999438
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    {
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      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
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      "kind": "first_difference",
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      "spearman": 0.040129514623,
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    {
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      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
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      "lag_weeks": -26,
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      "kind": "first_difference",
      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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    {
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      "kind": "first_difference",
      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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    },
    {
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      "spearman": -0.012013471228,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
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      "kind": "first_difference",
      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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    {
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      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
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      "lag_weeks": 13,
      "kind": "first_difference",
      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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    {
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      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "lag_weeks": 26,
      "kind": "first_difference",
      "positive_lag_means": "Spread observation at t leads index reference week t+k; not publication availability or causality",
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      "reject_holm_05": false
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  ],
  "lag_test_summary": {
    "family_size": 28,
    "estimable": 28,
    "holm_significant_05": 0,
    "holm_not_significant_or_not_estimable": 28,
    "multiple_testing": "Holm family28, HAC/Newey-West13lags on first differences; no unadjusted result selection"
  },
  "correlation_matrix": {
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      },
      "spread_10y3m_bp": {
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      },
      "NFCI": {
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        "spearman": -0.150008002916,
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      },
      "ANFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
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        "spearman": -0.189733318635,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      }
    },
    "spread_10y3m_bp": {
      "spread_10y2y_bp": {
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        "status": "computed",
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        "spearman": 0.94540500262,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "spread_10y3m_bp": {
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        "spearman": 1.0,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "NFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.116852653949,
        "spearman": -0.123083191443,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "ANFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.122918729846,
        "spearman": -0.136075471757,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      }
    },
    "NFCI": {
      "spread_10y2y_bp": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
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        "spearman": -0.150008002916,
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      },
      "spread_10y3m_bp": {
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        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.116852653949,
        "spearman": -0.123083191443,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "NFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 1.0,
        "spearman": 1.0,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "ANFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.992683214813,
        "spearman": 0.956947636688,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      }
    },
    "ANFCI": {
      "spread_10y2y_bp": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.087452504591,
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      },
      "spread_10y3m_bp": {
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        "status": "computed",
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        "spearman": -0.136075471757,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "NFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 0.992683214813,
        "spearman": 0.956947636688,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      },
      "ANFCI": {
        "n_pairs": 1400,
        "status": "computed",
        "pearson": 1.0,
        "spearman": 1.0,
        "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
      }
    }
  },
  "subperiod_correlations": [
    {
      "n_pairs": 365,
      "status": "computed",
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      "end": "2006-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
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      "end": "2009-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
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      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2010-01-01",
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      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
      "n_pairs": 52,
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      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
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      "start": "2020-01-01",
      "end": "2020-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2021-01-01",
      "end": "2021-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 156,
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      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2022-01-01",
      "end": "2024-12-31",
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    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 96,
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      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2025-01-01",
      "end": "2026-10-30",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
      "n_pairs": 365,
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      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2000-01-01",
      "end": "2006-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
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      "spearman": 0.505190885762,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2007-01-01",
      "end": "2009-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
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    {
      "n_pairs": 522,
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      "spearman": -0.045805238592,
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      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2010-01-01",
      "end": "2019-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 52,
      "status": "computed",
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      "spearman": -0.013793398764,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2020-01-01",
      "end": "2020-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 53,
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      "spearman": -0.384657269121,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2021-01-01",
      "end": "2021-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 156,
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      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2022-01-01",
      "end": "2024-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 96,
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      "spearman": -0.347796730511,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y2y_bp",
      "index": "ANFCI",
      "start": "2025-01-01",
      "end": "2026-10-30",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 365,
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      "pearson": -0.473691995927,
      "spearman": -0.43312644717,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2000-01-01",
      "end": "2006-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 156,
      "status": "computed",
      "pearson": 0.593235878258,
      "spearman": 0.562861299685,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2007-01-01",
      "end": "2009-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 522,
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      "spearman": 0.016245541656,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2010-01-01",
      "end": "2019-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 52,
      "status": "computed",
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      "spearman": -0.115898087738,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2020-01-01",
      "end": "2020-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 53,
      "status": "computed",
      "pearson": -0.261090169987,
      "spearman": -0.370216457278,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2021-01-01",
      "end": "2021-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 156,
      "status": "computed",
      "pearson": -0.096525766248,
      "spearman": -0.08684636043,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim",
      "spread": "spread_10y3m_bp",
      "index": "NFCI",
      "start": "2022-01-01",
      "end": "2024-12-31",
      "scope": "retrospective level correlation; subperiod sample only"
    },
    {
      "n_pairs": 96,
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      {
        "date": "2008-01-04",
        "spread_change_bp": 15.0,
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        "spread_past_z": 3.372453797383,
        "nfci_past_z": -3.747170885981,
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        "date": "2008-01-11",
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        "nfci_past_z": -3.447397215103,
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        "date": "2008-06-13",
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        "spread_past_z": -5.395926075813,
        "nfci_past_z": 2.646079133331,
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        "date": "2008-10-24",
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        "spread_past_z": -2.158370430325,
        "nfci_past_z": 3.703086522617,
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        "date": "2009-01-02",
        "spread_change_bp": 31.0,
        "nfci_change": -0.153,
        "spread_past_z": 3.617723164465,
        "nfci_past_z": -2.657331064444,
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        "date": "2010-05-21",
        "spread_change_bp": -21.0,
        "nfci_change": 0.073,
        "spread_past_z": -2.119828101212,
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        "date": "2011-08-05",
        "spread_change_bp": -16.0,
        "nfci_change": 0.063,
        "spread_past_z": -2.158370430325,
        "nfci_past_z": 3.747170885981,
        "rule": "opposite sign changes, both past-normalized absz>=2; not a causal contradiction"
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      {
        "date": "2011-08-12",
        "spread_change_bp": -26.0,
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        "spread_past_z": -3.822114303701,
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        "date": "2011-08-19",
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        "spread_past_z": -2.473132784748,
        "nfci_past_z": 3.565165442948,
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        "date": "2011-09-02",
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        "spread_past_z": -2.225819506273,
        "nfci_past_z": 2.529340348037,
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        "date": "2016-11-11",
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        "spread_past_z": 4.215567246729,
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        "date": "2018-02-16",
        "spread_change_bp": -12.0,
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        "spread_past_z": -2.473132784748,
        "nfci_past_z": 3.203831107514,
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        "date": "2020-05-08",
        "spread_change_bp": 9.0,
        "nfci_change": -0.099,
        "spread_past_z": 2.248302531589,
        "nfci_past_z": -8.346823148523,
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      {
        "date": "2020-06-05",
        "spread_change_bp": 20.0,
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        "spread_past_z": 4.721435316336,
        "nfci_past_z": -3.650185286579,
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        "date": "2022-02-11",
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        "nfci_past_z": 3.147623544224,
        "rule": "opposite sign changes, both past-normalized absz>=2; not a causal contradiction"
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      {
        "date": "2022-03-04",
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        "nfci_past_z": 3.260038670804,
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        "date": "2022-06-10",
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        "rule": "opposite sign changes, both past-normalized absz>=2; not a causal contradiction"
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      {
        "date": "2022-09-16",
        "spread_change_bp": -17.0,
        "nfci_change": 0.027,
        "spread_past_z": -2.398189367028,
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        "rule": "opposite sign changes, both past-normalized absz>=2; not a causal contradiction"
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    "threshold_sensitivity": [
      {
        "weeks": 13,
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        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
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            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
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            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
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            "nfci_threshold": 0,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
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        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
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      {
        "weeks": 13,
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        "cases": [
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            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
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            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
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            "nfci_threshold": 1,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
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            "nfci_threshold": 1,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
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        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "nfci_threshold": 2,
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        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
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            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
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            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
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            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 13,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
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        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
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        "cases": [
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            "no_followthrough": false
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
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            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
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          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
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        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "nfci_threshold": 1,
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        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
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          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "nfci_threshold": 2,
        "evaluated_onsets": 20,
        "no_followthrough": 20,
        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 26,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "nfci_threshold": 0,
        "evaluated_onsets": 20,
        "no_followthrough": 15,
        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": false
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 0,
            "no_followthrough": true
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "nfci_threshold": 1,
        "evaluated_onsets": 20,
        "no_followthrough": 20,
        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 1,
            "no_followthrough": true
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "nfci_threshold": 2,
        "evaluated_onsets": 20,
        "no_followthrough": 20,
        "censored_onsets": 0,
        "cases": [
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-02-11",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2000-12-28",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2005-12-29",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-01-31",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-03-21",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-08",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-06-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-02",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-07",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-14",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2006-08-17",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2007-05-30",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2019-08-27",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-04-01",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2022-07-06",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-03",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          },
          {
            "inversion_start": "2024-09-05",
            "followup_weeks": 52,
            "nfci_threshold": 2,
            "no_followthrough": true
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "Illustrative retrospective threshold follow-through proxy, not true/false crisis labels or predictive backtest"
      }
    ],
    "interpretation": "Relative condition and anomaly descriptors, not probabilities of systemic crisis. Index components overlap market information; sources are not independent."
  },
  "money_market_supplement": {
    "observations": 2144,
    "start": "2018-04-02",
    "end": "2026-10-30",
    "change_distribution_bp": {
      "n": 2143,
      "minimum": -270.0,
      "maximum": 282.0,
      "mean": 0.10032664489,
      "median": 0.0,
      "std_sample": 10.455039791226,
      "p05": -4.0,
      "p95": 4.0
    },
    "largest_absolute_changes": [
      {
        "date": "2019-09-17",
        "change_bp": 282.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-09-18",
        "change_bp": -270.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-03-16",
        "change_bp": -84.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-06-16",
        "change_bp": 75.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-11-03",
        "change_bp": 75.0
      }
    ],
    "weekly_nfci_correlation": {
      "n_pairs": 448,
      "status": "computed",
      "pearson": 0.271446809048,
      "spearman": 0.486861453642,
      "inference": "Descriptive; no IID p-value or causality claim"
    },
    "comparison_scope": "Money-market supplement; shorter inception coverage; retrospective not independent crisis ground truth"
  },
  "derived_spread_history": [
    {
      "date": "2000-01-07",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": 21.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 114.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-01-14",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": 25.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 128.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-01-21",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": 31.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 132.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-01-28",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": 8.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 101.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-02-04",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -10.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 86.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-02-11",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -2.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 97.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-02-18",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -17.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 74.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-02-25",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -9.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 57.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-03-03",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -11.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 60.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-03-10",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -16.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 52.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-03-17",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -30.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 31.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-03-24",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -44.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 29.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-03-31",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -47.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 15.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-04-07",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -52.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -4.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-04-14",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -42.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 4.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-04-21",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -39.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 20.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-04-28",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -45.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 41.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-05-05",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -33.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 54.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-05-12",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -40.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 37.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-05-19",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -35.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 62.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-05-26",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -36.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 50.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-06-02",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -37.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 28.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-06-09",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -43.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 21.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-06-16",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -39.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 16.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-06-23",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -36.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 33.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-06-30",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -35.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": 15.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-07-07",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -28.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -3.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-07-14",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -31.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -7.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-07-21",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -31.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -12.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-07-28",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -26.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -16.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-08-04",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -24.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -32.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-08-11",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -46.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -50.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-08-18",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -49.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -49.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-08-25",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -46.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -58.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-09-01",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -41.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -59.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-09-08",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -38.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -41.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-09-15",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -23.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -30.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-09-22",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -24.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -31.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-09-29",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -18.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -43.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-10-06",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -16.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -42.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-10-13",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -11.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -46.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-10-20",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -20.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -67.0
    },
    {
      "date": "2000-10-27",
      "spread_10y2y_bp": -22.0,
      "spread_10y3m_bp": -63.0
    },
    {
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      "id": "FSIE-001-F1",
      "title": "Observed yield-curve regimes",
      "method": "100*(10Y-shortyield), strictnegative inversion, original observed sessions; explicit episode censoring",
      "evidence": "yield_curve / study_period / coverage",
      "source_ids": [
        "treasury"
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      "limits": "An inversion is not a certain crisis; sessions and calendar days differ."
    },
    {
      "id": "FSIE-001-F2",
      "title": "Retrospective financial-condition relationships",
      "method": "Calendar-week alignment, Pearson/Spearman, joint13week blockbootstrap, all28lagtests with HAC/Holm",
      "evidence": "contemporaneous_correlations / lag_tests / subperiod_correlations",
      "source_ids": [
        "treasury",
        "chicago"
      ],
      "limits": "Latest-vintage descriptive study, revisions/publication timestamps unavailable; overlapping inputs and autocorrelation limit inference."
    },
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      "id": "FSIE-001-F3",
      "title": "Extreme changes and regime-change candidates",
      "method": "Past-only104week median/MAD, absz>=4, explicit volatility thresholds and two-sidedCUSUM-style candidates",
      "evidence": "anomalies / weekly_spread_change_volatility / change_point_candidates",
      "source_ids": [
        "treasury",
        "chicago"
      ],
      "limits": "Outlier is not an acquisition error or proven structural break; no trades, forecasting or investment advice."
    }
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    "Acquired current-vintage observations are not an ALFRED historical real-time panel; no claim of a look-ahead-free predictive backtest.",
    "Observation dates, source update time, acquisition snapshot and actual publication timestamps are distinct; unknown publication dates remain null.",
    "NFCI/ANFCI and subindices include market inputs and revisions; relationships need not be independent and correlations are not causal.",
    "HAC and block-bootstrap inference rely on temporal-dependence/stability assumptions; exploratory results are not guaranteed valid under arbitrary nonstationarity.",
    "All predefined lags, windows and subperiods are shown, including non-significant or not-determinable results.",
    "Yield-change volatility is measured in basis points per observed session/week, not bond-price return volatility or annualized investment risk.",
    "CUSUM-style changes and robust anomalies are heuristic research flags, not verified structural breaks or imminent-crisis labels.",
    "No-follow-through counts use arbitrary declared stress proxies and censor incomplete follow-up; they are not measured crisis forecasting accuracy.",
    "No trading, broker access, money management, leverage, performance promise or personalized recommendation.",
    "No raw institutional time-series archive is relicensed as Apache2.0 or publicly redistributed with the original-code release."
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  "completed_at": "2026-11-06T06:47:59.825384+00:00",
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  "source_data_terms": {
    "treasury": "https://home.treasury.gov/subfooter/privacy-policy",
    "chicago": "https://www.chicagofed.org/utilities/legal-notices",
    "newyork": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse"
  },
  "nyfed_notice": "SOFR data and derived research results are subject to the Terms of Use at https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse. The New York Fed is not responsible for publication of these results by Mattoccia Labs, does not endorse this republication, and has no liability for your use. Mattoccia Labs is not affiliated with the New York Fed. The New York Fed does not sanction, endorse, or recommend products or services offered by Mattoccia Labs. SOFR data are calculated using data provided under a license granted to the New York Fed by DTCC Solutions LLC; those parties have no liability for this material."
}