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uncertainty"}}}},"exploratory_combined_overrides":null,"sensitivity":[{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.02,"designed_target_utilization":0.5,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.25787783333334,"median":49.515520277777775,"std":1.6959356638800962,"mean_CI95":[47.15209557622362,51.363660090443055],"outcome_interval95":[47.211244712962966,51.21798291666667],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":2},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.02,"designed_target_utilization":0.7,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.25787783333334,"median":49.515520277777775,"std":1.6959356638800962,"mean_CI95":[47.15209557622362,51.363660090443055],"outcome_interval95":[47.211244712962966,51.21798291666667],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":2},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.02,"designed_target_utilization":0.9,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.25787783333334,"median":49.515520277777775,"std":1.6959356638800962,"mean_CI95":[47.15209557622362,51.363660090443055],"outcome_interval95":[47.211244712962966,51.21798291666667],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":2},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.05,"designed_target_utilization":0.5,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.19659032407408,"median":49.425282407407416,"std":1.7005429474593319,"mean_CI95":[47.08508736881451,51.30809327933365],"outcome_interval95":[47.16816069444445,51.19091918981482],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":5},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.05,"designed_target_utilization":0.7,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.44045175925926,"median":49.58405972222222,"std":1.8207437477470416,"mean_CI95":[47.17969979772717,51.701203720791355],"outcome_interval95":[47.373254027777776,51.69036199074075],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":4},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.05,"designed_target_utilization":0.9,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":50.9871,"median":50.562632175925934,"std":2.2530503830561703,"mean_CI95":[48.18956845321995,53.78463154678005],"outcome_interval95":[48.88720733796296,54.15403518518519],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":3},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.1,"designed_target_utilization":0.5,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.1608199074074,"median":49.370186574074076,"std":1.7043607411363315,"mean_CI95":[47.044576535186536,51.277063279628265],"outcome_interval95":[47.12742527777778,51.17223638888889],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":10},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.1,"designed_target_utilization":0.7,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":49.84504555555556,"median":49.82135138888889,"std":2.028403781171778,"mean_CI95":[47.32644960665417,52.36364150445694],"outcome_interval95":[47.792164166666666,52.53144087962964],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":7},{"cases":150,"replicates":5,"assumed_service_fraction":0.1,"designed_target_utilization":0.9,"cycle_mean_day":{"mean":51.04702185185185,"median":50.637485185185184,"std":2.2849701404417346,"mean_CI95":[48.20985669149475,53.884187012208955],"outcome_interval95":[48.786268148148146,54.169822407407416],"replicates":5,"assumption":"Independent seeded simulation replicates conditional on fixed data/model; not total epistemic uncertainty"},"abstract_capacity":6}],"target_activity":"Clear Invoice","target_selection":"Largest mean incoming elapsed gap among activities with at least100calibration transitions; potential observed delay, not proven bottleneck","assumptions":{"service_fraction_of_observed_elapsed_gap":0.05,"designed_utilization":0.7,"horizon_day":92.0,"queue":"FIFO shared abstract slots for selected activity; not inferred actual personnel","disruption":"Nonpreemptive capacity hold requested day30,released no earlier than45; active work is never interrupted. Late acquisition has shorter/no hold; actual replay records it.","arrivals":"Observed selected test-cohort starts; demand growth draws extra empirical starts. Not a population-wide demand forecast.","common_random_numbers":"Per-case,replicate,component seeds preserve unchanged original agents across scenarios; route modifications can alter later draw correspondence."},"limits":["All resource/service parameters are explicitly hypothetical; historical elapsed intervals cannot identify them.","These are model responses, not demonstrated organizational improvements or causal effects.","Change/Cancel intervention changes transition weights20percent then renormalizes; it does not guarantee20percent fewer repeats.","Arrival count grows30percent within the selected cohort; throughput levels cannot be extrapolated to the whole company.","No money, staff productivity or guaranteed savings are calculated.","Sensitivity design changes both assumed share and designed slots, rather than identifying a unique real capacity."],"results_sha256":"6855a0170325dffa811a51831f47be6741f66f879d8619900076fddba8db8742"}